The state of the art in expert judgement

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    STSMs 2016/2017

    The action has funded 6 STSMs over the coming months! 

    Successful meeting on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty Assessment

    October 2016: The Action held a workshop on Project Risk & Asset Management Uncertainty hosted by colleagues at TU Delft

    Expert Judgement Workshop, 26th August 2016

    An expert judgement workshop is being held at the University of Strathclyde on Friday 26th August!

    The state of the art in expert judgement

    Session 1: Opening address

    Oswaldo Morales, Simon French and Tina Nane

    Session 2: The state of the art in Structured Expert Judgement 1

    Valuing and evaluating expertise: judgment, policy and business - Tim Bedford

    The competition and the opportunity: an overview of expert elicitation methods and applications for the last few years - Tom Mazzuchi

    Session 3: The state of the art in Structured Expert Judgement 2

    Structured expert judgment with the Classical Model – experiences of an NBD facilitator - Willy Aspinall

    Expert judgment: probabilities, parameters and MODELS! - Simon French

    Expert judgment and adversarial problems - David Rios

    Decisions with partially and imprecisely specified judgments - Malcolm Farrow

    Session 4: Dependence modelling

    Specification of uncertainty distributions for multinomial models with expert judgements: a vine copulas approach - Kevin Wilson

    Bayesian modelling of dependence between experts - David Hartley

    The sequential conditioning method: Addressing under- and overspecification of detailed expert judgment for probabilities dependence modelling - Christoph Werner

    Session 5: Applications 1

    The use of expert judgment in terrorism risk assessment - Gordon Woo

    Guidelines for better science advice: Examples from applications in natural hazard assessments - Annemarie Christophersen

    Risk assessment of an offshore recovery operation - Arno Willems

    Session 6: Processes and guidelines

    Customising a graph to support structural elicitation - Jim Smith

    Classical meets modern in the IDEA protocol: what could go wrong? - Anca Hanea

    Who to trust? Assessing and improving expert judgment with conservation - Victoria Hemming

    Session 7: The Classical Model: theory, validity, extensions

    Classical Model Collage - Max Mendel, Ben Ale, Willy Aspinall, Simon French, Gordon Woo

    Validating expert judgments and the Classical Model - Abby Colson

    Measuring experts’ performance in assessing dependence: experiences and open questions - Oswaldo Morales Napoles

    The squizzle and its friends - John Paul Gosling

    Summing up - Roger Cooke

    Session 8: Modeller viewpoints 1

    Three-point lifetime distribution elicitation for maintenance optimization in a Bayesian context - René van Dorp

    Finding common ground when experts disagree: belief dominance over portfolios of alternatives - Ahti Salo

    The living room of science: do we need questionable research practices to survive in academia? - Rens van de Schoot

    Session 9: Applications 2

    The use of expert judgments in quantifying uncertainties in risk assessment of food and feed safety – experiences and lessons learnt from the implementation of EFSA’s Expert Knowledge Elicitation Guidance - Olaf Mosbach-Schulz and Andy Hart

    Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance with structured expert judgment - Abby Colson

    Source attribution of food- and waterborne pathogens in the United States using structured expert judgement - Elizabeth Beshearse

    Session 10: Modeller viewpoints 2

    The case of 10-6 and other alternative opinions - Ben Ale

    Dependency elicitation using expert judgment - Victory Idowu

    Session 11: Achievements of the COST action & next steps

    WG1 Report

    WG2 Report

    WG5 Report